Gold tests $4,450 as Philly Fed, jobless claims firm rate risk – Kitco AM Report

(Kitco NewsWire, Thurs. Aug. 20th, 2026) – Spot gold prices are lower and spot silver prices are firmer in early U.S. trading Thursday, as stronger-than-expected U.S. labor and regional manufacturing data trimmed part of Wednesday’s Treasury-led precious-metals rally. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,454.70 an ounce, down 1.51%, while spot silver was trading near $66.670, up 4.87% on the session.

The latest positioning remains split between yesterday’s bond-market relief and this morning’s firmer data. Initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 for the week ended Aug. 15, below expectations for 210,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.799 million. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 47.4 in August from 41.4 in July, well above expectations for 24.1, reinforcing the message from Monday’s Empire State survey that regional factory activity is not rolling over. The data added some resistance to the lower-yields trade that lifted gold above $4,500 Wednesday, while Fed minutes showed several officials were prepared to raise rates if inflation fails to cool. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading near the 4.7% area, and traders now turn to Friday’s flash PMI readings at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Gold’s pullback is occurring after a clean breakout day. Wednesday’s surge pushed the metal through $4,447, then above the $4,500 area, before this morning’s claims and Philly Fed data pulled prices back toward the breakout zone. Silver has held up better, staying above the $66.55 level identified in the latest technical setup. The split matters for positioning: gold is trading the rates impulse more directly, while silver is still drawing support from momentum, industrial demand and the broader precious-metals breakout.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand. The U.S. says the strait is open, while Iran continues to say it remains effectively closed until Washington meets its conditions, and traffic through the waterway remains subdued despite U.S. efforts to stabilize flows. Oil is higher as the U.S.-Iran standoff and regional attacks keep supply risk elevated, with Brent trading near $93.90 a barrel and WTI near $86.72. For gold, the setup remains two-sided: geopolitical stress supports safe-haven demand, but higher crude keeps inflation risk alive and limits how far yields can fall.

Global markets were mixed ahead of the U.S. open. U.S. stock-index futures were little changed after Wednesday’s Treasury buyback-driven rally, with S&P 500 futures steady, Dow futures down 0.1% and Nasdaq futures up 0.1%. European markets were slightly lower, while Asian markets were broadly higher as lower long-end yields supported risk appetite.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around $86.72 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $93.90. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area. The U.S. dollar index is mixed. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today’s gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)

Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,595.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,778.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,447.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,320.00 and then $4,228.00. First resistance is seen at $4,595.00 and then at $4,778.00. First support is seen at $4,447.00 and then at $4,320.00.

Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $68.02, with a move above that level targeting $69.48. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $66.55, with deeper downside targets at $64.20 and then $62.75. First resistance is seen at $68.02 and then at $69.48. Next support is seen at $66.55 and then at $64.20.

Posted by:

Jack Dempsey, President

401 Gold Consultants LLC

jdemp2003@gmail.com