Gold nears $4,660 as PCE, Jackson Hole frame Fed trade – Kitco AM Report

(Kitco NewsWire, Mon. Aug. 24th, 2026) – Spot gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Monday, as a weaker U.S. dollar, fiscal-risk hedging and lingering Strait of Hormuz uncertainty kept buyers active despite still-elevated Treasury yields. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,657.10 an ounce, up 1.19%, while spot silver was trading at $69.160, up 0.43% on the session.

The latest positioning remains defined by the gap between softer recent U.S. inflation data and still-firm activity signals. Last week’s flash composite PMI rose to 56.0 in August, its strongest reading in more than 4 years, with services at 56.8 and manufacturing at 53.2, while earlier CPI, PPI, retail-sales and sentiment readings left markets leaning toward a September Fed hold. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading near the 4.7% area and the 30-year yield remains near the 5.3% area, keeping the rate backdrop restrictive for non-yielding metals. The next major tests are July PCE, durable goods and the second estimate of Q2 GDP Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, weekly jobless claims Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech Friday at 10 a.m. ET.

Gold and silver remain the standout cross-asset move after last week’s breakout. Gold is holding above the former $4,595 objective and is testing the $4,661 resistance area, while silver is consolidating below $69.90 after last week’s test above $70. The move is not a clean lower-yield trade: long-end yields remain elevated, but dollar weakness, Treasury buyback concerns, fiscal-risk hedging and geopolitical demand have continued to offset the negative carry from higher rates.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and defensive demand. U.S.-Iran talks remain stalled, Washington is preparing new sanctions to pressure Tehran and Iran’s top security official warned that support for new U.S. economic measures would be treated as an act of war. Oil prices are lower Monday as the market weighs sanctions pressure against uncertainty over when tankers will again be able to exit the Persian Gulf freely, with Brent near $91.06 a barrel and WTI near $85.18. For gold, the setup remains supportive but conflicted: Gulf shipping risk and a weaker dollar support safe-haven demand, while oil-driven inflation risk and elevated long-end yields limit how far the Fed-relief trade can run.

Global markets were weaker ahead of the U.S. open. U.S. stock-index futures edged lower as bond-market pressure and AI-linked technology weakness remained in focus, while investors looked ahead to the Jackson Hole symposium later this week. In Asia, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.1% and the Shanghai Composite added 0.1%. European trading was mixed to weaker in early dealings.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $85.18 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $91.06. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area. The U.S. dollar index is softer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today’s gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)

Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,661.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,729.00 and then $4,794.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,567.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,508.00 and then $4,448.00. First resistance is seen at $4,661.00 and then at $4,729.00. First support is seen at $4,567.00 and then at $4,508.00.

Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $69.90, with a move above that level targeting $71.03 and then $72.39. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $68.39, with deeper downside targets at $66.54 and then $64.19. First resistance is seen at $69.90 and then at $71.03. Next support is seen at $68.39 and then at $66.54.

Posted by:

Jack Dempsey, President

401 Gold Consultants LLC

jdemp2003@gmail.com