Profit-taking price pressure on gold, silver ahead of U.S. CPI

(Kitco News,Thurs. Dec.18th, 2025) – Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, on some routine profit taking from the shorter-term futures traders following recent gains that pushed silver to a record high Wednesday. Precious metals traders are awaiting a key U.S. inflation report out shortly. February gold was last down $20.00 at $4,353.80. March silver prices were down $0.746 at $66.16.

U.S. consumer price index out today. Consumer price inflation in the U.S. is expected to have risen to 3.1% in November (year-on-year), which would mark the highest level since May of 2024, and up from 3.0% YOY in September. Core inflation (minus food and energy) is forecast at 3.0% YOY, unchanged from the September reading. The November CPI report was delayed by nearly a week, while the October report was cancelled altogether due to the government shutdown, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics was unable to retroactively collect the necessary data. As a result, there are doubts about the completeness of the November release. The BLS has said it will not publish one-month percentage changes for headline or core CPI for November 2025 where the October 2025 data are missing.

Central banks in Europe set to end interest rate cuts. Sweden’s Riksbank and Norway’s Norges Bank kept their interest rates unchanged at their monetary policy meetings today and signaled they are not in a hurry to cut rates. The European Central Bank also meets today and is expected to stand pat on its monetary policy. Meantime, the Bank of England is cut its rates by 25 basis points but markets are still pricing in only one further BOE cut next year despite softer inflation.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $56.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.14%.

Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.

Technically, February gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,433.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,200.00. First resistance is seen at the December high of $4,387.80 and then at $4,400.00. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $4,330.70 and then at this week’s low of $4,297.40. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0.

March silver futures bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $70.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at the record high of $67.18 and then at $67.50. Next support is seen at $65.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of $63.725.

Posted by:

Jack Dempsey, President

401 Gold Consultants LLC

jdemp2003@gmail.com