Price pressure on gold, silver amid firmer USDX, uptick in bond yields

(Kitco, Mon. April 20th, 2026) – Gold and silver prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading Monday, as the bulls are mostly standing on the sidelines due to a firmer U.S. dollar index and a slight rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Once again, gold traders on this day are choosing the aforementioned bearish daily elements for the metals, over the bullish uptick in risk aversion in the general marketplace to start the trading week. June gold was last down $68.50 at $4,811.30. May silver prices were down $2.437 at $79.395.

Latest on the war in the Middle East…

–Iran wavers on peace talks as tensions rise after U.S. seizes Iranian ship
–Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic grinds to a halt as tensions deepen
–Trump says envoy Witkoff heading to Pakistan for Iran talks
–Trump says Iran committed ‘serious violation’ of ceasefire: ABC
–IEA head pitches Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline to bypass Hormuz
–U.S. preparing to board Iran-linked ships in coming days: WSJ
–U.S. official says Iran attacked commercial ships in Hormuz: Axios

Iran wavered on whether to send diplomats to Pakistan for a second round of peace talks after the U.S. maintained a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and seized an Iranian ship, dimming hopes of a breakthrough in efforts to end the war. Tehran has no plans to attend the potential negotiations though a final decision hasn’t been made, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters on Monday and as reported by Bloomberg. “There are various indications that there is no seriousness on the U.S. side in advancing diplomacy,” he added. His comments added to uncertainty over the weekend about whether the two sides will meet before a nascent ceasefire announced April 7 expires late U.S. time on Tuesday.  President Donald Trump said Sunday that special envoy Steve Witkoff is traveling to Pakistan for talks on Tuesday, according to Fox. Said Trump in a social media post: “We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran.” Trump added: “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”

Global stagflation worries on the rise… The cumulative global economic impact of seven weeks of war in the Middle East will begin to emerge this week, in a second round of business surveys from multiple countries. “Whether the twin blows affecting growth and inflation seen in purchasing manager indexes after the first month of the Iran conflict intensified during month two will be a key focus. The initial take for April in economies from Australia to the U.S. will be published on Thursday. Indexes in Germany, France, the euro zone and the UK are all anticipated to show broad deterioration, while the American indicators are seen little changed,” said a Bloomberg report. “Ultimately, the numbers may point to the degree that stagflation is lurking. That ominous term — evoking the noxious mix of surging prices and stalling growth of the 1970s.”  Even if the war ends tomorrow, it would take quite some time for the recovery to kick in, said IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva to Bloomberg. This week’s major U.S. economic data release will be retail sales. Economists project a sizable jump in overall sales for March, largely due to sharply increased spending on gasoline. The International Monetary Fund has trimmed its global growth forecast for 2026 due to the oil-price shock from war in the Middle East. The IMF sees the world economy expanding 3.1% this year, down from a January forecast of 3.3%, and raised its inflation estimate due to higher energy and food prices.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices solidly up and trading around $88.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is a bit firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.27 percent.

Note: The gold market operates through two primary pricing mechanisms. The first is the spot market, which quotes prices for on-the-spot purchase and immediate delivery. The second is the futures market, which sets prices for delivery at a future date. Due to year-end positioning market liquidity, the December gold futures contract is currently the most actively traded on the CME.

Technically, June gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,500.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,834.50 and then at $4,900.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,752.00 and then at $4,700.00.

May silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $85.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $80.755 and then at last week’s high of $83.245. Next support is seen at $77.00 and then at $75.00.

Posted by:

Jack Dempsey, President

401 Gold Consultants LLC

jdemp2003@gmail.com