Gold, silver rise as jobless claims temper PCE-driven Fed repricing – Kitco AM Report

(Kitco NewsWire, Thurs. Oct. 1st, 2026) – Spot gold and silver prices were higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, as soft inflation data kept October Fed-hike expectations below earlier-week levels, while this morning’s jobless claims and elevated Treasury yields limited the relief rally. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,181.80 an ounce, up 0.62% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $61.090, up 1.33%.

Market positioning remains split between lower near-term Fed-hike odds and a still-hostile long-yield backdrop. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 for the week, below expectations near 201,000 and down from a revised 198,000, keeping layoffs low and preventing a clean dovish read-through from Wednesday’s softer PCE inflation print. October rate-hike pricing remains near 37%, well below roughly 70% earlier in the week, but the 10-year Treasury yield touched the 5.34% area and the 30-year yield reached the 5.68% area as energy inflation, deficit concerns and heavy debt issuance kept pressure on the long end. ISM manufacturing is due at 10:00 a.m. ET, followed by Friday’s September employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET. A firm ISM prices component or stronger payrolls would keep the yield channel pointed against gold; softer labor data would support the view that the Fed can wait despite oil-driven inflation risk.

The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains unresolved and is still feeding the oil-inflation channel. Iranian officials said Wednesday they had received an official U.S. response to Tehran’s latest proposal to end the seven-month war, but there was no confirmation that the response accepted Iran’s conditions or would reopen the strait. President Donald Trump had rejected Iran’s earlier proposal to reopen Hormuz within a week if Washington met certain conditions. Brent crude was trading near $100.10 a barrel and WTI near $91.78, keeping energy prices high enough to sustain inflation concern even as Gulf flows have partly recovered. For gold, the geopolitical channel is supportive, but the dominant market impact remains negative when oil strengthens the dollar and pushes Treasury yields higher.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading near $91.78 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $100.10. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.3% area. The U.S. dollar index is firmer and holding near a year-to-date high. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today’s gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)

Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,190.00 to $4,210.63 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,238.00 and then $4,254.44. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,160.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,112.00 and then $4,073.00. First resistance is seen at $4,190.00 and then at $4,210.63. First support is seen at $4,160.00 and then at $4,112.00.