Gold, silver rally as CPI cools but oil keeps Fed risk alive – Kitco AM Report

(Kitco NewsWire, Wed. Aug. 12th, 2026) – Spot gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Wednesday, after July CPI matched expectations and left the market split on whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates at its September meeting. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,427.72 an ounce, up 1.36%, while spot silver was trading at $66.20, up 2.51% on the session.

This morning’s CPI report gave precious metals a rate-relief bid without removing the Fed risk. Headline CPI rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% from a year earlier, while core CPI rose 0.2% on the month and 2.5% year-over-year. The numbers matched consensus and were not hot enough to force an immediate repricing toward a September hike, but inflation remains above target, energy is still feeding through the rates debate and the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point September hike remains near 48%. The 10-year Treasury yield is trading near the 4.7% area, off its recent highs, while the U.S. dollar is softer.

The Strait of Hormuz remains the main geopolitical channel into oil, inflation expectations and safe-haven demand. The waterway is still effectively shut, with Iran demanding U.S. concessions before any full reopening and Washington seeking compensation tied to the conflict. Brent crude is holding near $89 a barrel and U.S. crude is near $84, keeping fuel costs elevated even as CPI came in line with expectations. For gold, the setup is two-sided: restricted Gulf shipping supports defensive demand, but higher crude keeps the inflation argument alive and limits how far markets can price out additional Fed tightening.

Regional shipping stress also remains broader than Hormuz. Attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have kept alternative routes under pressure, while energy agencies have warned that inventory buffers are shrinking. That leaves crude, yields and gold trading the same policy channel: whether oil-driven inflation is strong enough to offset the weaker labor-market signal from last week’s payroll report.

Global markets were firmer ahead of the U.S. open. S&P 500 futures were up 0.3%, Dow futures edged up 0.1% and Nasdaq futures gained 0.7%. In Europe, Germany’s DAX rose 0.47%, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.12%. Asian trading was mixed.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around $83.53 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $89.08. The U.S. dollar index is softer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today’s gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.) The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.7% area.

Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,430.00 to $4,492.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,500.00 and then $4,600.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,360.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,299.00 and then $4,224.00. First resistance is seen at $4,430.00 and then at $4,492.00. First support is seen at $4,360.00 and then at $4,299.00.

Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $66.495 area, with a move above that zone targeting $71.38. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $64.00, with deeper downside targets at $63.11 and then $61.16. First resistance is seen at $66.495 and then at $71.38. Next support is seen at $64.00 and then at $63.11.

Posted by:

Jack Dempsey, President

401 Gold Consultants LLC

jdemp2003@gmail.com