Gold price up as marketplace thinking pivots on Fed policy

(Kitco News, Monday,  Aug 4th, 2025) – Gold and silver prices are higher in early U.S. trading Monday, boosted by notions of lower U.S. interest rates coming in September, following a very downbeat U.S. economic report Friday that fell squarely into the camp of the monetary policy doves. December gold was last up $22.90 at $3,422.50. September silver prices were last up $0.406 at $37.325.

President Trump late Friday fired the head of the agency that produces the monthly jobs figures after the Friday morning jobs report showed hiring slowed in July and was much weaker in May and June than previously reported. Trump, in a post on his social media platform, alleged the jobs figures were manipulated for political reasons and said that Erika McEntarfer, the director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who was appointed by former President Joe Biden, should be fired. “I have directed my team to fire this Biden political appointee, immediately,” Trump said on Truth Social.  The U.S. stock market sold off Friday following the dour U.S. jobs data, which changed the trajectory of the economic discussion to one of a Fed rate cut now being likely at the September FOMC meeting. Trump said he will announce a new Federal Reserve governor and a new BLS jobs data statistician in the coming days.

European and Asian stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

China to hold economic plenum in October… Reports say China will hold its major economic policy meeting in October, likely focusing on the next five-year plan, according to China’s Xinhua News. The announcement follows a recent politburo meeting where leaders pledged to address mounting economic risks, including deflation, industrial overcapacity, and a prolonged property slump. China’s producer prices fell for the 33rd consecutive month in June. China’s politburo has emphasized curbing “disorderly competition” and advancing capacity cuts in key sectors. China also plans to boost domestic demand and promote innovation in globally competitive industries.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures are lower trading around $66.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.25%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and manufacturers’ shipments and inventories.

Technically, December gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the July high of $3,509.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,300.00. First resistance is seen at $3,425.00 and then at $3,450.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $3,397.90 and then at $3,350.00.