Gold price moves up from daily lows after tame U.S. CPI data

(Kitco News, Tuesday. Aug 12th, 2025) – Gold and silver prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading but well up from overnight lows following the release of a U.S. inflation report that is being deemed as non-problematic. December gold was last down $2.90 at $3,401.00. September silver prices were down $0.013 at $37.75.

The just-released July U.S. consumer price index report showed a rise of 2.7%, year-on-year, versus expectations for up 2.8%. The core rate (minus food and energy) was up 3.1%, year-on-year and was expected to come in at up 3.0% and compares to a rise of 2.9% in the June report. The marketplace has been betting on a quarter-point interest rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17 FOMC meeting. Some are even thinking tame inflation data today could give the Fed a green light for a half-point cut in September. Today’s CPI data that was close to market expectations but does not fall squarely into the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves. Still, it looks like the stock and financial markets don’t have a problem with today’s CPI numbers.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open modestly up when the New York day session begins.

Bloomberg reports Wealthy investors in Asia have shown strong appetite for gold, with those in Hong Kong more than doubling their allocation to the precious metal in a year, according to a 2025 HSBC survey. Some billionaire families are earning returns by lending their physical bullion to local jewelers, while others are entering profit-sharing ventures or playing the arbitrage game, buying discounted bars in one market and selling them for premiums in another, said Bloomberg.

President Trump extended a pause of higher tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days into early November, in an effort to stabilize trade ties between the world’s two largest economies. Trump signed an order extending the truce through Nov. 10, deferring a tariff hike set for today, with all other elements of the agreement remaining the same, said Trump. The extension eases worries of a renewed tariff war and gives the two countries more time to come to an agreement.

President Trump has tempered expectations for his upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska Friday as Trump seeks to end the Russia-Ukraine war, saying it will be a “feel-out meeting” and he would confer with Ukrainian and European leaders after the meeting. “I’m going to be telling him, ‘You got to end this war. You got to end it,’” Trump said Monday at a White House press conference. Trump added that it wasn’t “up to me to make a deal.” Trump said, “I’m going to go and see the parameters. I may leave and say, ‘Good luck,’ and that’ll be the end. I may say this is not going to be settled.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker, with crude oil prices down a bit and trading around $63.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently around 4.3%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release today includes the Johnson Redbook retail sales report, the NFIB small business index, real earnings and the U.S. monthly budget statement.

Technically, December gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but faded today. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $3,319.20. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3,408.70 and then at $3,450.00. First support is seen at $3,375.00 and then at $3,350.00.

September silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $39.91. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $36.28. First resistance is seen at $38.00 and then at this week’s high of $38.56. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $37.515 and then at $37.00.

Posted by:

Jack Dempsey, President

401 Gold Consultants LLC

jdemp2003@gmail.com