Gold price firmer after key U.S. inflation data as expected

(Kitco News,Friday. Sep. 26th, 2025) – Gold prices are firmer following an important U.S. inflation report that is just out and right in line with market expectations. Silver prices are up and hit another 14-year high. December gold was last up $9.20 at $3,780.00. December silver prices were up $0.231 at $45.35.

The just-released U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index came out right as expected, rising 0.3%, month-on-month in August, following a 0.2% gain in July. The Core PCE (minus food and energy) was up 0.2%, also right in line with expectations and below the 0.3% rise in each of the previous two months. Annually, headline PCE inflation rose to 2.7%, which is in line but also the highest in six months, from 2.6% in the July report. Core PCE inflation was at 2.9%, also in line with market expectations. The PCE inflation data is said to be very closely watched by the Federal Reserve.

Global stocks were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to steady to slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.

The U.S. dollar index on Thursday posted solid gains and hit a four-week high in the wake of an upbeat U.S. GDP report that was better than market expectations. The GDP report and other recent U.S. data are forcing traders to reassess the Federal Reserve’s trajectory for interest-rate cuts, with attention turning to today’s PCE inflation report. Having nearly priced in two quarter-point Fed rate cuts by year-end, the marketplace now sees the odds of that closer to 50-50. “The data serve as a warning sign for the Fed,” Danske Bank strategists wrote in a note, predicting the U.S. dollar and short-end Treasury yields could continue to climb in the near term. “With growth momentum proving stronger than expected, market focus could swing back to the inflation mandate.”

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly down, while crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $65.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 4.18%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release today includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Technically, December gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $3,900.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $3,650.00. First resistance is seen at $3,800.00 and then at this week’s high of $3,824.60. First support is seen at Wednesday’s low of $3,749.70 and then at this week’s low of $3,718.10.

December silver futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $47.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $41.50. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $45.53 and then at $46.00. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $44.06 and then at this week’s low of $43.37

Posted by:

Jack Dempsey, President

401 Gold Consultants LLC

jdemp2003@gmail.com