Gold firms, silver slides as oil surge revives inflation pressure – Kitco AM Report

(Kitco NewsWire, Thurs. Oct. 8th, 2026) – Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are sharply lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, as another jump in oil prices and Treasury yields kept inflation and Fed tightening risk at the center of the metals trade. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,128.20 an ounce, up 0.45% on the session, while spot silver was trading near $58.830, down 1.40%.

Market positioning remains caught between a soft payrolls signal and a still-hawkish inflation backdrop. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 in the week ended Oct. 3, down 2,000 from the prior week’s revised level, while continuing claims rose to 1.716 million for the week ended Sept. 26. Last week’s payrolls report showed only 29,000 jobs added in September, but Fed minutes released Wednesday showed most policymakers still expected another rate increase by year-end. The 10-year Treasury yield was near the 5.3% area, the 30-year yield remained near 24-year highs and traders were watching Thursday’s $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction, Friday’s preliminary October consumer sentiment report and next week’s CPI data. Softer labor or sentiment data would support gold by reinforcing the payroll slowdown; firm inflation expectations, weak auction demand or another oil-driven rise in yields would keep pressure on bullion.

The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains the dominant oil-market risk and the main indirect headwind for gold through inflation and yields. Brent crude jumped above $104 a barrel and WTI traded above $92 after another tanker was hit north of Qatar, while attacks on vessels around the Gulf and Hormuz reached their highest weekly pace since the Iran war began. Hurricane-related U.S. Gulf shutdowns added to the supply squeeze, with about a quarter of current Gulf of Mexico oil output shut in. The geopolitical channel is normally supportive for gold, but Thursday’s market transmission was more complicated: higher oil lifted inflation expectations, pushed yields higher and weighed on equities and silver.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices higher and trading near $92.28 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $104.75. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 5.3% area. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. (Kitco Global Index shows how much of today’s gold move is the dollar versus the gold market itself.)

Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,151.29 to $4,199.06 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,226.00 and then $4,230.51. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,118.19, with deeper downside targets at $4,103.00 and then $4,066.00. First resistance is seen at $4,151.29 and then at $4,199.06. First support is seen at $4,118.19 and then at $4,103.00.