Early 2026 volatility won’t derail gold’s bull market; miners’ record cash flow will support re-ratings – Van Eck’s Casanova

(Kitco News, Fri. Feb. 13th, 2026) – Gold price swings in January highlighted volatility, not weakness, while strong investment demand, central bank buying and improving miner fundamentals continue to support a sustainable long-term bull market in 2026 and beyond, according to Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, Gold and Precious Metals at Van Eck.

In a note published Tuesday, Casanova wrote that gold has had a phenomenal – but very volatile – start to the year.

“Rising geopolitical tensions around the world, in particular, developments involving Venezuela, Iran and Greenland, combined with persistent U.S. tariff and sanctions threats, pushed gold above $5,000 per ounce on January 26,” she noted. “Breaking through that psychological level appeared to unleash a wave of speculative buying. By January 29, gold was trading at an intraday high of $5,595 per ounce, nearly $1,300 higher than at the end of 2025.”

Casanova said this price action made a pullback almost inevitable, and markets latched onto the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair on January 30 as the catalyst, with gold prices collapsing 9% on the day.

“Warsh was initially seen as a more hawkish choice, supportive of the U.S. dollar and generally negative for gold, signaling potentially less accommodative monetary policy ahead,” she wrote. “That said, after the initial reaction, the implied probability of Fed rate cuts ticked up slightly, possibly reflecting Warsh’s comments suggesting alignment with President Trump’s preference for lower rates. Gold closed January 30 at $4,894.23 per ounce, ending the month up $574.86, or 13.31%.”

But despite the dramatic selloff, Casanova insisted that gold’s key price drivers remain in place.

“January’s price action is a reminder of both gold’s uncontested role as a safe haven and U.S. dollar alternative, and the increased volatility that comes with trading at record levels,” she said. “In our view, these sharp swings should not distract or deter gold investors. Gold’s longer-term outlook remains supported by the same forces that drove it in 2025: central banks and investors seeking protection, diversification and de-dollarization in their reserves and portfolios.”

“Rising geopolitical risks and trade tensions, inflation concerns, a potentially weaker dollar and the risk of a meaningful correction in stretched equity markets should all continue to support gold in 2026,” she added. “While new highs are likely to be followed by pullbacks and periods of range-bound trading, we believe this gold bull market still has several years to run.”

We couldn’t agree more, and remember the famous Warren Buffet quote “it’s not timing the market, it’s time IN the market” precious metals epitomize this strategy absolutely, buy them.

Posted by:

Jack Dempsey, President

401 Gold Consultants LLC

jdemp2003@gmail.com