(Kitco, Thurs. Aug. 24th, 2023) – This daily digest of the latest news and perspective is a must read for those in business who need to keep abreast of the newest developments in the marketplace, yet do not have time to scour all the media outlets. In less than 10 minutes you will be caught up and in the know on the current events impacting the marketplace.— posted by 401 Gold Consultants LLC .
Without Trump, Other GOP Presidential Candidates Discuss Key Policy Issues
Jackson Hole | Russian assassination? | Key FDA announcement | BRICS expands
Today”s Digital Newspaper
Former president Donald Trump is enamored of a “universal baseline tariff,” possibly set at 10%, on virtually all U.S. imports — triple the current average duty of 3% — a move experts say could start a trade war. More in Trade Policy section.
U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai urged Russia to reverse its decision to suspend the Black Sea Grain Initiative during her address to the first session of the Group of 20 (G20) Trade and Investment Ministers’ Meeting. More in Russia & Ukraine section.
China has taken a significant step in the escalating feud between itself and Japan by imposing a ban on all seafood imports from Japan. This move is a direct response to Japan’s decision to release treated radioactive wastewater from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean. The ban amplifies the tension between these neighboring countries. While Japanese authorities have argued that the released water is significantly diluted and adheres to international safety standards, China has justified its seafood ban as a measure to safeguard the health of its consumers. The primary concern is the potential “risk of radioactive contamination” in food products, prompting China’s decision to halt seafood imports from Japan.
In the China section, we have items on (1) The U.S. State Dept. gave its approval for a $500 million sale of an infrared tracking system and additional equipment to Taiwan. (2) White House seeks extension to science and technology pact with China. (3) China capitalizes on U.S. sanctions in fight to dethrone dollar. (4) China to expand GM corn, soybeans trials amid rising food-security focus as Beijing seeks to dispel public safety concerns.
Iran and Saudi Arabia are among six nations that have been invited to join the BRICS bloc of developing economies. BRICS is currently made up of the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and those five members agreed at this week’s summit to expand the bloc. Details below.
The National Association of Realtors said that there were just 980,000 existing single-family homes for sale last month, the fewest during the month of July in records stretching back to 1982.
The SEC voted 3-2 to strengthen requirements on how private equity, hedge funds and venture capital interact with investors. The industry has doubled over the past decade, and currently manages more than $25 trillion in assets.
Surveys released on Wednesday indicate that Western economies are experiencing a deceleration due to increased prices and rising interest rates dampening consumer demand. More in Markets section.
U.S. crude oil futures have hit four-week lows as troubles in China’s property sector add to concerns about lackluster economic data from the world’s second-largest oil consumer.
On the farm policy front, we have updates on a public USDA hearing to discuss reforms in dairy pricing, and a CRS report on what happens if the 2018 Farm Bill is not extended, or a new farm bill is not passed (usual scare tactic used by some to get a new farm bill). Details in Policy section.
The Association of American Feed Control Officials (AAFCO) took a step forward in establishing a new definition for “Dried Recovered Household Food” to be used as animal feed. More in Livestock section.
Brazil’s government has proposed a plan to Argentina that would use the Chinese yuan to guarantee export payments to bypass the Argentine peso, which is facing hyperinflation.
California’s largest agricultural water district is making controversial plans to save water and invest in solar. More in Energy and Climate Change section.
A widespread heatwave is affecting the U.S., bringing triple-digit temperatures and triggering excessive heat warnings across various regions. Over 22 states, particularly from the Gulf Coast to central Minnesota, were under heat alerts on Wednesday. The extreme temperatures are driven by a “heat dome,” a high-pressure system that traps and intensifies hot air near the surface. Several states have reported record-breaking heat levels. The heatwave’s impacts have been significant, with consequences including the death of nearly two dozen cattle in Nebraska, evacuations of over 100 nursing home residents in Missouri, and the closure of businesses in Iowa. Meteorologists predict that by Friday, more than 65 million people will have encountered temperatures surpassing 100 degrees Fahrenheit.
MARKET FOCUS
Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mostly higher in overnight trading. U.S. Dow opened flat to down slightly but then rallied nearly 200 points but has since tempered those gains. Nasdaq opened higher. In Asia, Japan +0.9%. Hong Kong +2.1%. China +0.1%. India -0.3%. In Europe, at midday, London +0.4%. Paris +0.4%. Frankfurt +0.3%.
U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow was up 184.15 points, 0.54%, at 34,472.98. The Nasdaq rose 215.16 points, 1.59%, at 13,721.03. The S&P 500 was up 48.46 points, 1.10%, at 4,436.01. The Nasdaq is now up 31% this year thanks to investor excitement over artificial intelligence and chip makers powering the latest computing boom.
In the second quarter of 2023, Nvidia, a U.S.-based chipmaker, announced impressive revenue of $13.5 billion, marking a significant doubling compared to the previous year. This remarkable growth surpassed the predictions made by analysts. The surge in revenue was driven by a robust demand for chips utilized in the development of artificial intelligence (AI) models. Following this positive news, Nvidia’s stock price saw a rise of over 6% during after-market trading on Wednesday. The company also provided a forecast of $16 billion in sales for the upcoming third quarter.
Perspective: Nigel Green, CEO and founder of deVere Group, a large financial advisory, asset management, and fintech organization, commented on Nvidia’s recent earnings and guidance reports. Green emphasizes two main points:
AI’s present significance: Green points out that the success of Nvidia’s earnings and the expected surge in sales due to growing demand for AI chips indicate that AI is not just a future prospect, but a present reality. He believes that investors should recognize AI as a pivotal driver of innovation, competitiveness, and profitability across various industries. The potential of AI is still in its early stages, and investors who seek long-term wealth building should include AI exposure in their investment portfolios.
Nvidia’s dominance and future opportunities: Green acknowledges Nvidia’s position as a leader in the AI boom, referring to it as the “darling of the AI boom.” However, he also suggests that while Nvidia’s dominance might continue for some time, investors should consider whether the positive news about the company is already reflected in its stock price. He questions whether Nvidia’s shares can sustain another substantial increase and suggests that savvy investors should explore alternative investment opportunities within the AI sector. He advises investors to look for the “Next Big Thing” and reminds them that history shows that challengers can provide significant returns. Green concludes by stressing the importance of diversification as a strategy for long-term financial success. Given the rapid evolution of AI and its investment landscape, Green advises seeking professional advice to navigate potential pitfalls, optimize opportunities, and increase the likelihood of achieving favorable investment returns.
Market quotes of note:
- Nvidia’s blowout results. WSJ’s Tom Loftus writes: “Can we just pause and reflect on the unbelievable fact that Nvidia, a mature, well-established business that started 30-years ago with a meeting at a Denny’s, saw revenue in its recently completed quarter more than double from a year ago to about $13.5 billion? Now consider that Nvidia expects revenue in its current quarter to be about $16 billion, besting expectations by about $3.5 billion. It’s as if OpenAI’s ChatGPT, whose late 2022 debut sent demand for Nvidia’s AI chips through the stratosphere, just hallucinated a new reality and we are now living it.”
- Philadelphia, the city where people aren’t going back to offices. With an office-occupancy rate hovering around 40% in recent months, Philadelphia lags most major U.S. cities in the return-to-office race. Only Silicon Valley’s tech workers go to their San Jose, Calif., offices less, according to Kastle Systems, a security firm that tracks employee badge swipes in and out of buildings.
- More regulations coming from the SEC. The SEC voted 3-2 to strengthen requirements on how private equity, hedge funds and venture capital interact with investors. The industry has doubled over the past decade, and currently manages more than $25 trillion in assets. “Economically, our investors, large or small, benefit from greater transparency and integrity,” SEC Chair Gary Gensler declared. “These are significant enhancements in the capital markets.” The new regulations will require private funds to provide investors with quarterly statements detailing standardized metrics like fund fees, expenses, and performance. Firms will also be banned from giving preferential treatment to certain investors for cashing out if that practice leads to a negative effect on other investors (unless terms like favorable redemption rights are included). Funds will additionally be required to perform annual audits, while disclosures or explicit investor consent will be mandated when funds want to pass on compliance costs.
The National Association of Realtors said that there were just 980,000 existing single-family homes for sale last month, the fewest during the month of July in records stretching back to 1982. The low supply means elevated prices for existing homes and increased demand for new homes.
Surveys released on Wednesday indicate that Western economies are experiencing a deceleration due to increased prices and rising interest rates dampening consumer demand. S&P Global Market Intelligence’s surveys of purchasing managers demonstrated a contraction in manufacturing activity, coupled with a retreat in the service sector in Europe and the U.K. In the U.S., service-sector growth has slowed down. S&P economist Chris Williamson cautioned that the overall decline in business conditions might swiftly affect the U.S. job market. He noted that employment growth, which was nearly stagnant in August, could soon transform into job losses in the upcoming months.
Market perspectives:
• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was higher, with the euro and British pound weaker against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose, trading around 4.22%, with a mixed tone in global government bond yields. Crude oil futures were narrowly mixed, with U.S. crude little changed at around $78.90 per barrel and Brent higher at around $83.30 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were lower ahead of US trading, with gold around $1,942 per troy ounce and silver around $24.22 per troy ounce.
• U.S. crude oil futures have hit four-week lows as troubles in China’s property sector add to concerns about lackluster economic data from the world’s second-largest oil consumer. “The rally in oil appears to have run out of steam for now,” ING Economics analysts said. “China’s macro issues, along with a growing expectation that maybe the U.S. Fed is not done with its tightening cycle have weighed on oil more recently.”
• Global oil inventories have significantly decreased due to a combination of production cuts by the OPEC+ alliance and a rebound in demand for crude oil. Onshore stockpiles around the world were estimated at approximately 3.37 billion barrels as of a recent Wednesday, marking a reduction of 60 million barrels in comparison to the previous month, according to the analytics firm Kpler. Notably, a substantial portion of this decline occurred in China, where state-owned refineries are anticipated to achieve record operating rates in the current month. The U.S. has also witnessed a consistent drop in inventories, contributing to a 15% increase in oil prices since the end of June.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
— A Russian court prolonged the detention of Evan Gershkovich, an American journalist working for the Wall Street Journal, by an additional three months. Gershkovich was apprehended by Russian security services on allegations of espionage in March. Both he and his employer vehemently deny any wrongdoing. The U.S. gov’t strongly criticized the arrest, labeling it as the first instance of a Western journalist being charged with espionage in Russia since the conclusion of the Cold War.
— U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) Katherine Tai urged Russia to reverse its decision to suspend the Black Sea Grain Initiative during her address to the first session of the Group of 20 (G20) Trade and Investment Ministers’ Meeting. She emphasized the importance of the initiative and its benefits to the people relying on Ukrainian grain. Additionally, Tai called on Russia to end its aggressive actions against Ukraine and withdraw its forces.
Regarding the World Trade Organization(WTO), Tai expressed anticipation for the trade body’s 13th Ministerial Conference scheduled for February 2024. She highlighted the significance of reform discussions during the conference, underscoring the need to enhance transparency and compliance with members’ commitments, as well as address distortions in the global market and unfair practices by certain members. Tai emphasized that these reform discussions represent a continuous process aimed at laying the groundwork for more effective member engagement within the WTO.
CHINA UPDATE
— China promptly enforced a ban on seafood imports from Japan in response to Japan’s decision to discharge treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean. Chinese customs authorities expressed significant apprehension regarding potential radioactive contamination. Despite China’s concerns, the International Atomic Energy Agency has stated that there is no actual risk of radioactive contamination.
Of note: China is the largest market for Japanese seafood exports.
— The U.S. State Dept. gave its approval for a $500 million sale of an infrared tracking system and additional equipment to Taiwan.This system is intended to enhance the capability of Taiwan’s F-16 fighter jets to detect enemy aircraft. This deal represents a significant step in upgrading Taiwan’s air force during President Joe Biden’s tenure. The Pentagon has stated that this sale is not expected to disrupt the fundamental military equilibrium in the region.
— White House seeks extension to science and technology pact with China. The landmark agreement, set to expire on Sunday, has attracted scrutiny as competition between China and U.S. intensifies. Wall Street Journal.
— China capitalizes on U.S. sanctions in fight to dethrone dollar. Beijing uses developing world chagrin over Washington’s weaponization of greenback to push global renminbi. Financial Times.
— China to expand GM corn, soybeans trials amid rising food-security focus as Beijing seeks to dispel public safety concerns. Hebei, Jilin, Sichuan, Yunnan and Inner Mongolia will play a role in expanding a trial of genetically modified (GM) corn and soybeans amid China’s increased focus on food security. South China Morning Post.
TRADE POLICY
— Brazil seeks to guarantee exports to Argentina in yuan. Brazil’s government has proposed a plan to Argentina that would use the Chinese yuan to guarantee export payments to bypass the Argentine peso, which is facing hyperinflation (113% annualized). Brazil is concerned with Argentine cash shortages and wants to keep trade flowing, according to Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad.
Of note: In Argentina, recent transactions have stressed the dollar as the preferred exchange unit.
— More on former President Donald Trump’s 10% tariff trade proposal. Trump discussed the idea of imposing a 10% automatic tariff on imports to the U.S. from all countries during a recent interview on Fox Business. This concept has sparked reaction:
- The White House views this proposal as a “sweeping tariff tax on the middle class,” warning of potential inflation and economic growth suppression.
- Economists such as Paul Krugman (liberal slant) suggest that while the direct impact on GDP might be minimal, the broader implications of such a tariff matter more, potentially leading to the U.S. withdrawing from global trade rules.
- The potential costs would stem from retaliation against the US, discrimination in other markets, and potential dismantling of the World Trade Organization’s trade agreements.
- Trump’s former trade chief, Robert Lighthizer, has suggested overhauling the tariff system to create a new baseline for all tariffs, potentially leading to a new system of managed trade beneficial to the U.S. and its allies.
- The Trump plan could be executed using the president’s powers under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, similarly to how Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese imports.
POLITICS & ELECTIONS
— Highlights of GOP presidential candidates’ debate. During a spirited initial primary debate, eight Republican presidential candidates aimed to distinguish themselves from Donald Trump, the prominent GOP front-runner, who tried to divert attention from the debate. Former President Donald Trump skipped the first debate and instead was interviewed by former FOX News host Tucker Carlson online. Key takeaways:
- Support for Trump if convicted: With the exception of Asa Hutchinson and Chris Christie, all candidates indicated their support for Trump even if he were to be convicted. Pence told viewers that Trump “asked me to put him above the Constitution” on Jan. 6, 2021. Ramaswamy called Trump “the best president of 21st century” when moderators Brett Baier and Martha MacCallum of Fox News asked about the charges against him. Speaking of Trump’s multiple indictments, Christie said that whether people believed the former president’s actions were criminal or not, “Someone has got to stop normalizing this conduct, OK?”
- Sending troops to the border: Most candidates supported deploying military troops to the southern border to combat fentanyl trafficking.
- China’s limited attention: China was used by candidates as a segue to discuss other matters rather than being a central topic. North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum made the first mention of China, using it to address Biden administration policies to promote a transition to clean energy. “So if you buy a battery in this country, you buy a solar panel it’s being produced in a plant in China powered by coal or it’s being powered by oil and gas at 20% off and every farmer in this country would like to buy diesel at 20% off just like they’re buying it in China,” said Burgum.
- Foreign policy differences: The Ukraine conflict highlighted deep divides among candidates regarding foreign policy approaches. Pence and Haley pounded Ramaswamy for his willingness to withdraw support for Ukraine. Referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Nikki Haley — former U.N. ambassador and South Carolina governor — told Ramaswamy, “This guy is a murderer and you are choosing a murderer over a pro-American country.” When Ramaswamy tried to defend himself, Haley stressed: “You have no foreign policy experience — and it shows,” she told him.
- Views on climate change: Disagreements emerged over climate change, with some candidates dismissing it as a “hoax” (Ramaswamy) while others, like Nikki Haley, acknowledged its reality.
- Abortion: Haley argued it would be impossible to get a 15-week abortion ban through the Senate — “be honest with the American people” she told her rivals — and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum reiterated his support for leaving abortion restrictions up to the states. These positions drew sharp rejoinders from Pence and Hutchinson, who argued for tight restrictions to access to abortions.
Perspective: We await a future poll of the GOP presidential hopefuls following the debate and Trump’s solo interview. Initial analyst reaction notes Ramaswamy is the candidate the others went after, reflecting his recent rise in the polls. His numbers could rise again. Pence said in a clear swipe at the 38-year-old Ramaswamy, “Now is not the time for on-the-job training. We don’t need to bring in a rookie.” Christie came after Ramaswamy when the young candidate boasted that he was the only candidate on the stage “not bought and paid for.” An exasperated Christie jabbed back, “I’ve had enough already tonight of a guy who sounds like Chat GPT.” As for DeSantis, some say he and Pence looked the most presidential, if that has any weight in future polling. Haley was an aggressive participant, with some analysis saying Democrats may like her debate performance more than Republicans. Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.) had the least impressive night, While he is well-liked by many Republicans, he was low key during the debate. His biggest point during the evening was when he intervened in a Christie-Ramaswamy verbal tussle to insist: “Going back and forth being childish is not helpful to the American people.”
OTHER ITEMS OF NOTE
— BRICS building. During the 15th summit of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) group in Johannesburg, it was announced that six new countries — Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — will become members of the bloc starting in 2024. Cyril Ramaphosa, the President of South Africa, referred to this as the “first phase of the expansion process.” The decision was celebrated as an important step for the BRICS group. Over 40 countries have reportedly shown interest in joining the bloc, as confirmed by South African officials.
ING Economics says: “The big surprise from the BRICS summit in South Africa is that Saudi Arabia has been invited to join the group of major emerging countries. And that’s adding fresh impetus to the de-dollarization debate, which is a potential challenge to the dominance of the US dollar in global trade.”
Of note: Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would assume chairmanship of the group made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa next year and host a summit in the city of Kazan in October 2024.
Posted by:
Jack Dempsey, President
401 Gold Consultants LLC
jdemp2003@gmail.com