Gold price pauses; marketplace contemplating Israel-Iran conflict teaser image

(Kitco News, Mon. April 15th, 2024 ) – Gold prices are near steady and silver prices higher in early U.S. trading Monday. The general marketplace remains very uneasy amid heightened geopolitics, especially in the Middle East. June gold was last up $1.00 at $2,375.10. May silver was last up $0.34 at $28.67.

Asian and European stock indexes were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. It was a tense weekend after Iran and its allies coordinated a massive air strike on Israel. However, judging by what the markets are doing Monday morning, the marketplace reckons the weekend outcome could have been much worse and that the Iran-Israel confrontation could de-escalate now. That may be wishful thinking, however.

Israel has vowed to retaliate for the more-than 300 missiles and drones fired into Israel by Iran and its proxies. The attack included 185 explosive drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles, “in a salvo that could have killed thousands and destroyed most of Israel’s infrastructure,” said broker SP Angel in a morning email dispatch. “Iran has been threatening to annihilate Israel for many years and it is only a matter of time before Iran develops its nuclear arsenal. The hard-line Netanyahu government will, almost inevitably, hit back at Iran in an attempt to slow its nuclear program, change its regime and reduce the capacity of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Members of the Israel cabinet are reported to be pushing for a powerful retaliatory strike as a deterrence, though the U.S. has stated it will not help Israel retaliate against Iran. We suspect the retaliatory attack will come sooner rather than later,” said the broker.

The Associated Press said in a morning email: “Iran may have managed to strike a balance between retaliating publicly and avoiding provoking further Israeli military action and setting off a much wider conflict. Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the Middle East and North Africa center at the U.S. Institute of Peace said of the situation: ‘Both (Iran and Israel) are able at this point to claim victory and step down off the precipice, particularly since there were no Israeli civilians killed.’ ” The marketplace will remain extra nervous in the coming days.

In other news, China kept its monetary policy unchanged at its PBOC central bank meeting.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 4.573%.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, the NAHB housing market index, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

Technically, the gold futures bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. A two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at $2,500.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,300.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,389.60 and then at $2,400.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $2,360.60 and then at $2,350.00.

The silver bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing May futures prices above solid technical resistance at $30.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $26.00. First resistance is seen at $29.00 and then at $29.50. Next support is seen at $28.00 and then at the overnight low of $27.665.

Posted by:

Jack Dempsey, President

401 Gold Consultants LLC

jdemp2003@gmail.com